Yes, I know that I have always been inspired by Ross Perot's charts (he has a new web site with new charts "perotcharts.com").

This chart, however, is a real game changer.

For everyone who thinks the consumer may return soon, therefore driving stocks back up, think of this. For our Texas listeners, most of whom heat their homes with natural gas, see what impact natural gas prices will have on your disposable this fall and winter.

Let's round for effect. Last fall, natgas spot was about $7. Today it is about $14. Assuming that it does not go up any more this year, your home heating bill will more than double, after taxes and fees.

Soooooo, if my monthly home heating bill was $700 last year, this year it will be $1400.

We pause for effect...

Did anyone out there plan to spend $500-$1000 more each month to heat their homes? What effect do you think this will have upon disposable incomes? Think this will make consumers spend more or less? And this is just the heating bill. This does not include the increased cost of virtually everything else.

Just food for thought when deciding upon whether we have a bottom in sight anywhere. Especially financials. If financials are struggling with write-offs, what do you think this massive decrease in disposable income will have on the propensity of consumers to pay their outstanding obligations? My bet is that write-offs and foreclosures will continue to increase dramatically. And this is if the natgas prices just don't go up any more.

Cash, puts, shorts, precious metals seem a whole lot safer right now. Obviously, if you believe that the tops are in for energy, then take another tack. If you believe that energy is flat to increasing or if you think some further conflict is probable in the Middle East, this chart might be conservative by the end of this year.

Pull out your crystal ball and take your choice.