Sunday, August 10, 2008

The war between Russia and South Osseta that continues to expand will likely turn out to be a significant financial story. There is a map of the region for your reference.

Please notice that South Osetta is within 100 miles of Turkey, a NATO ally and a dominant military power. Turkey's southern border is Iraq.


Here is a quote that summarizes the conflict:

Mr. Saakashivili, the Georgian president, said Russia’s oil riches and desire to assert economic leverage over Europe and the West had emboldened Kremlin country to attack. Georgia is a transit country for oil and natural gas exports from the former Soviet Union that threatens Russia’s near monopoly.

“They need control of energy routes,” Mr. Saakashvili said. “They need sea ports. They need transportation infrastructure. And primarily, they want to get rid of us. ”

Finance is not all about stock tips.

Just remember the next time someone tells you about the "BRIC" countries as if they are a homogeneous, ubiquitous "one", ask if Brazil is at war or if India has invaded Pakistan. Just because there has been economic growth in these countries does not mean that there is equal risk.

All the more reason for "Deep Due Diligence". This will be a regular segment on The Wall Street Shuffle. Charts and stock picks only get you so far. Little things like war are also part of the "risk premium" that we all remember from first year finance...the risk free rate (usually a short term treasury) + the rate of inflation (feel free to insert your own calculation here) + market risk premium (THIS is where you might factor in war, pestilence, politics, first strike capabilities, etc.).

This formula has never changed and it never will. And it works for every form of investment. It's just important to remember that "risk" is a much broader word than the financial community would have you believe.