This is why we have not yet begun to face our financial crisis. Here are the next two huge waves of home mortgage refinances. Our long term interest rates must stay low to allow these mortgages to reset at a rate that the debtors can service. That means that the rate on the 10 year Treasuries must stay in the 3% range until 2012 - nearly 3 years!

And, just to add a little complexity. this does NOT include retail or commercial mortgage obligations that require permanent financing. It is important to note that distress in the commercial and retail mortgage markets happens about 18-24 months AFTER the onset of residential mortgage distress.

Our media and government should be ashamed for not reporting these statistics. To jump on the recovery bandwagon is shameful. If you assume that we will begin to require higher rates of return to compensate for greater risk and inflation, this means that asset values will go down just as rates rise. This leads to a "death-spiral" effect for real property.

Just food for thought...